Israel vs Kosovo
Match details. UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Israel have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Kosovo have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D.
The numbers. Israel score 2.4 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Israel average 13.0 shots (6.0 on target), 2.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Kosovo score 1.6 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Kosovo average 9.3 shots (3.4 on target), 1.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 44% against the records' 71%.
The read. No firm call: Kosovo are the better side, but not at this price. Kosovo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Kosovo.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Israel 2-2 Kosovo (7% chance).
The agreed story. Kosovo or the draw, goals in between.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Israel in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Ireland, lost 1-3 at Austria (rated above them). Kosovo in their last internationals: lost 1-3 at Austria (rated above them), won 1-0 v Ireland. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).