IREIRL

19:45Thu 1 Oct

AUT

AUS

Ireland vs Austria

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League, League B - 3. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Aviva Stadium, Dublin. The referee is Allard Lindhout.

Form. Ireland have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. In this competition Ireland have gone W L W W. Austria have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D L. In this competition Austria have gone W W.

The numbers. Ireland score 1.6 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ireland average 12.2 shots (5.0 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Austria score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Austria average 10.4 shots (3.7 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Ireland have won one, drawn one and lost none. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 11 Jun 2017, it finished Ireland 1-1 Austria: Ireland had 15 shots to 10, 53% of the ball, two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 28% against the records' 60%.

The read. No firm call: Ireland are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Ireland the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Ireland. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Ireland 1-0 Austria (12% chance).

The agreed story. Ireland or the draw, a tight game.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Ireland in their last internationals: won 3-0 at Israel, lost 0-1 at Kosovo. Austria in their last internationals: won 3-1 v Kosovo, won 3-1 v Israel. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Ireland or AustriaIN CODES

1.35

IRL 9 of 10 (90%) · AUT 4 of 5 (80%)67%

Ireland: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Austria: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

IRL 9 of 10 (90%) · AUT 4 of 5 (80%)88.6%

Ireland: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Austria: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.32

IRL 7 of 10 (70%) · AUT 5 of 5 (100%)82.2%

Ireland: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Austria: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.51

IRL 7 of 10 (70%) · AUT 4 of 5 (80%)75.5%

Ireland: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Austria: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Austria or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 1.5 Cards (the numbers (92%) and the records (69%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it); Ireland or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Austria or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 12.1%

Ireland goals →

Austria goals ↓

0-08%

1-012%

2-011%

3-07%

4-03%

5-01%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-10.9%

0-23%

1-25%

2-24%

3-22%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-30.8%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.7%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.3%

2-40.3%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

IRELANDWWDLLWWWLW1.90 PPG

AUSTRIAWLWDWLDLWW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

IRELAND HOMExAUSTRIA AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME2.501.00CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS20%2.80CORNERS A GAME3.002.80CARDS A GAME1.292.04xG1.201.10xG AGAINST1.52

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

IRELAND 1 · 50%DRAW 1AUSTRIA 0 · 0%

2016-11-12Ireland 1 – 0 Austria

2017-06-11Ireland 1 – 1 Austria

TRENDS

Ireland have scored in 80% of their games.

Austria have scored in 70% of their games.

Ireland kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Austria kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards