Virgin Islands, British vs Montserrat
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
Form. Virgin Islands, British have won none, drawn none and lost ten of their last ten, 0.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Montserrat have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L.
The numbers. Virgin Islands, British score 0.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. Virgin Islands, British average 5.7 shots (2.7 on target), 2.5 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Montserrat score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Montserrat average 3.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
The case against. Virgin Islands, British's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Montserrat to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Montserrat the likelier winners; Montserrat are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Montserrat. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Virgin Islands, British 0-1 Montserrat (14% chance).
The agreed story. Montserrat or the draw, a tight game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Virgin Islands, British in their last internationals: lost 0-3 v Turks and Caicos Islands, lost 0-3 at Montserrat. Montserrat in their last internationals: won 3-0 v Virgin Islands, British, won 2-0 at Turks and Caicos Islands. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).