THE READ
Match details. UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.
Form. Wales have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W W. Norway have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W.
The numbers. Wales score 1.9 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Wales average 12.3 shots (5.5 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Norway score 2.5 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Norway average 11.9 shots (5.2 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
The read. Norway to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Norway the likelier winners; Norway are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Norway. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Norway at 1.13, rated 84% (Norway unbeaten in 8 of 10; Wales failed to win 6 of 10). Full cover: Wales Over 0.5 Goals at 1.53. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Wales 1-2 Norway (8% chance).
The agreed story. Norway or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Wales in their last internationals: lost 0-2 at Denmark, lost 0-1 at Portugal. Norway in their last internationals: lost 1-2 v Portugal (rated above them), won 3-2 v Denmark. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Double Chance: Draw or NorwayMAININ CODES
1.13
NOR 8 of 10 (80%) · WAL 6 of 10 (60%)85.8%
Norway unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales failed to win 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.09
NOR 4 of 5 (80%) · WAL 8 of 10 (80%)83.9%
Norway scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales trailed or failed to win in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.18
NOR 9 of 10 (90%) · WAL 6 of 10 (60%)83.7%
Norway: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway (Draw No Bet)IN CODES
1.18
NOR 7 of 9 (78%) · WAL 4 of 8 (50%)83.4%
Norway won 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Wales lost 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 5, refunded 1, lost 2
Norway to Win Either Half: YesPAGE ONLY
1.24
NOR 7 of 10 (70%) · WAL 4 of 10 (40%)73.7%
Norway: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
1st Half Result or Match Result: NorwayPAGE ONLY
1.27
NOR 7 of 10 (70%) · WAL 4 of 10 (40%)73.7%
Norway: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway or draw and over 1.5 goalsIN CODES
1.28
WAL 5 of 10 (50%) · NOR 8 of 10 (80%)72.4%
Wales: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway or draw and both teams scoreLEANPAGE ONLY
1.93
WAL 4 of 10 (40%) · NOR 8 of 10 (80%)64.8%
Wales: the bet landed in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against
1.22
NOR 4 of 5 (80%) · WAL 8 of 10 (80%)63.9%
Norway scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales trailed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
1.48
NOR 7 of 10 (70%) · WAL 4 of 10 (40%)53.7%
Norway won 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales lost 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway or draw and over 2.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.77
WAL 2 of 10 (20%) · NOR 7 of 10 (70%)52.4%
Wales: the bet landed in 2 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 51% · each game weighed by who it was against
1X2 - 2UP: NorwayLEANPAGE ONLY
1.44
NOR 3 of 5 (60%) · WAL 7 of 10 (70%)51.8%
Norway scored first 4 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 3 · led by 2 or won in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway Win & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.67
NOR 7 of 10 (70%) · WAL 3 of 10 (30%)48.2%
Norway: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales: the bet landed in 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 59% · each game weighed by who it was against
GOALS
1.16
WAL 7 of 10 (70%) · NOR 10 of 10 (100%)87.6%
Wales: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 87% · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.56
WAL 4 of 10 (40%) · NOR 9 of 10 (90%)67.5%
Wales: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · each game weighed by who it was against
WALES GOALS
Wales Over 0.5 goalsFULL COVERLEANIN CODES
1.53
WAL 8 of 10 (80%) · NOR 10 of 10 (100%)61.6%
Wales scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway conceded in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against
NORWAY GOALS
Norway Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.09
NOR 10 of 10 (100%) · WAL 7 of 10 (70%)97%
Norway scored in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 99% · each game weighed by who it was against
Norway Over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.51
NOR 7 of 10 (70%) · WAL 3 of 10 (30%)60.4%
Norway scored over 1.5 in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales conceded over 1.5 in 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 59% · each game weighed by who it was against
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.18
WAL 8 of 10 (80%) · NOR 9 of 10 (90%)80%
Wales: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.28
WAL 6 of 10 (60%) · NOR 8 of 10 (80%)79.1%
Wales: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Norway: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
2nd Half - Norway Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.36
NOR 8 of 10 (80%) · WAL 5 of 10 (50%)71.1%
Norway: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Wales: the bet landed in 5 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against
Left off the list: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Norway win and over 2.5 goals (the numbers (50%) and the records (51%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it)