DENDEN

19:45Thu 1 Oct

POR

POR

Denmark vs Portugal

CLASS A

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THE BET

TOTAL GOALS

Class A

DENv

POR

Over 1.5 Goals

Denmark v Portugal

International - UEFA… · 19:45

1.21odds

83%book

-33edge

2/2angles

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is Thu 1 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time.

Form. Denmark have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. Portugal have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D.

The numbers. Denmark score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Denmark average 17.6 shots (7.0 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Portugal score 2.2 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Portugal average 15.0 shots (5.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game.

The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Denmark 2-1 Portugal (8% chance).

The agreed story. Portugal or the draw, goals in between.

Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Denmark in their last internationals: won 2-0 v Wales, lost 2-3 at Norway. Portugal in their last internationals: won 2-1 at Norway, won 1-0 v Wales. Too few internationals to judge the side from.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsMAINHELD · the odds board 83%

1.21

DEN 4 of 5 (80%) · POR 7 of 10 (70%)49.6%

Denmark: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Portugal: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 73% · each game weighed by who it was against

DENMARK GOALS

Denmark Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.36

DEN 4 of 5 (80%) · POR 7 of 10 (70%)58.1%

Denmark scored in 4 of 5 at home · Portugal conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.22

DEN 4 of 5 (80%) · POR 6 of 10 (60%)71.6%

Denmark: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Portugal: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANHELD · the odds board 74%

1.36

DEN 2 of 5 (40%) · POR 7 of 10 (70%)51.9%

Denmark: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Portugal: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 63% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 2.5 CardsBACKUPIN CODES

1.28

DEN 4 of 5 (80%) · POR 6 of 10 (60%)78.6%

Denmark's games: over 2.5 cards in 4 of 5 at home · Portugal's games: over 2.5 cards in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 2.5 Goals (the numbers (40%) and the records (52%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Denmark or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Portugal or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Portugal or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Double Chance: Denmark or Portugal (no result call); Denmark or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.5%

Denmark goals →

Portugal goals ↓

0-011%

1-013%

2-09%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-114%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-25%

1-26%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-32%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-40.4%

1-40.5%

2-40.3%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

DENMARKWLDWLDWWWD1.80 PPG

PORTUGALWWLWDWDWLD1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

DENMARK HOMExPORTUGAL AWAY

2.50SCORED A GAME2.201.10CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.50CORNERS A GAME6.001.60CARDS A GAME1.90

TRENDS

Denmark have scored in 90% of their games.

Portugal have scored in 70% of their games.

Denmark kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Portugal kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards