Barrow AFC vs Scunthorpe United
Match details. National League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Tue 29 Sep, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Holker Street, Barrow in Furness.
What's at stake. Barrow AFC are 16th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Woking, 1 point clear of Wealdstone. A win would take them above Woking. Scunthorpe United are 20th on 10 points after 10 games, level on points with Carlisle, 1 point clear of Hartlepool. A win would take them above Carlisle.
Form. Barrow AFC have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W. In this competition Barrow AFC have gone W W L D W D. Scunthorpe United have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L. In this competition Scunthorpe United have gone W L L W L L.
The numbers. Barrow AFC score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Barrow AFC average 6.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Scunthorpe United score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Scunthorpe United average 4.8 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Barrow AFC have won three, drawn one and lost one. One of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Barrow AFC won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 15 Mar 2022, it finished Barrow AFC 1-0 Scunthorpe United: Barrow AFC had 18 shots to 8, 66% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%; four of the last five meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Scunthorpe United's record still gives them 29% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Barrow AFC to win. A tight game. Both teams' records favour Barrow AFC; the meetings favour Barrow AFC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%. Four of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Scunthorpe United or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Barrow AFC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Barrow AFC 1-0 Scunthorpe United (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).